Perhaps I don't understand Moore's Law properly, but aren't we actually well behind on its schedule? If we published our 10,000th book at the end of 2003, doubling in 1.5 years means 20,000 books in mid-2005. At the current rate we are not likely to reach that figure--anywhere between 16k and 17k seems more realistic. It's not something to be ashamed of, as we are still extending the archive at a very respectable rate, so can we not just be honest about it and admit that we while we predicted 20,000 based on Moore's Law, we are no longer growing that quickly. I've always understood Moore's Law to be just a prediction, not a target, so we haven't failed anything. :-) Other than that, congratulations on reaching 15,000! What was posted as eBook 15000? To: "Project Gutenberg Weekly Newsletter" <gweekly@lists.pglaf.org> Sent: Saturday, January 08, 2005 8:00 PM Subject: [gweekly] 15,000th Project Gutenberg eBook Released
Congratulations to the Project Gutenberg Volunteers!!!
In the last hour Project Gutenberg released their 15,000th eBook.
More details will be available in Wednesday's email Newsletters.
This far exceeds Moore's Law projections from 10 eBooks in 1990, which would predict 15,000 around August, 2006, and which every pundit has continually said was an impossible growth rate:
Projected Growth Rate
Total Date Doubled Years
10 Dec, 1990 0 0 20 Jun, 1992 1 1.5 40 Dec, 1993 2 3 80 Jun, 1995 3 4.5 160 Dec, 1996 4 6 320 Jun, 1998 5 7.5 640 Dec, 1999 6 9 1280 Jun, 2001 7 10.5 2560 Dec, 2002 8 12 5120 Jun, 2004 9 13.5 10240 Dec, 2005 10 15 15000 Aug, 2006 10.5 15+ <<< Predicted Date for ~15,000 20480 Jun, 2007 11 16.5
Our many thanks to all the thousands of Gutenberg volunteers!!!
Michael S. Hart
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