Miranda van de Heijning wrote:
Perhaps I don't understand Moore's Law properly, but aren't we actually well behind on its schedule?
It depends on what what you use as your reference point. E.g.: 10000 in Oct 2003 predicts ~17,000 now, and we're slightly behind; 1000 in Oct 1997 predicts ~30,000 now, and we're way behind; 100 in Dec 1993 predicts ~17,000 now, and we're slightly behind; 10 in Dec 1990 predicts ~7,000 now, and we're way ahead. The earliest reference I can find to Moore's Law in relation to PG's growth rate is in the Nov 27, 2002 weekly newsletter: http://www.gutenberg.net/newsletter/archive/PGWeekly_2002_11_27.txt in which Michael Hart uses '100 in Dec 1993' as the reference point. PG's total stayed remarkably close to that model (maybe only 1 or 2% above it) for all of 2002 and 2003, but started falling away from it in early 2004. In the last 6 months, the PG total has increased by about 14%, from 13,155 on 2004-07-07 to 15,000 on 2005-01-08, which puts it close to a 'doubling every 2.6 years' curve. -Michael