michael said:
>   I think I sent the messages just to bowerbird

ok, could've been.


>   the site I was reading for iPad data,
>   numbers, descriptions, etc., was not good....

also coulda been...


>   When I got better data, it was more obvious--
>   but since I had never even seen an iPad then,
>   I had no other data to work with, and Apple,
>   IRRC wasn't saying much in the early days.

that's correct, to a large degree.

apple _did_ make an announcement right off,
on april 3rd, that they'd already sold 300,000,
but that included pre-orders and channel sales.

>   http://www.apple.com/pr/library/2010/04/05ipad.html
>   http://www.apple.com/pr/library/2010/04/

and right at the time of our bet, apple released
its second-quarter numbers, but it did _not_
comment on the number of ipads sold, which
_might_ have led some observers to cast doubt.

>   http://www.apple.com/pr/library/2010/04/20results.html
>   http://www.apple.com/pr/library/2010/04/20ipad.html

so yeah, there was a lot of rampant speculation...

but shortly thereafter, on may 3rd, apple said
that it had sold one million ipads, in 28 days...

>   http://www.apple.com/pr/library/2010/05/03ipad.html
>   http://www.apple.com/pr/library/2010/05/

and then, again, on may 31st, apple reported
that it had already sold its second million ipads.

>   http://www.apple.com/pr/library/2010/05/31ipad.html

so yeah, like you say, michael, once we received that data,
the nature of the phenomenon became clear to everyone...

but before then, everyone underestimated it, often to
a degree that -- in hindsight -- is embarrassingly bad,
as john gruber pointed out in an entry on his blog:
>   http://daringfireball.net/linked/2011/01/18/claim-chowder-ipad-sales-2010

-bowerbird