On Wed, 24 Nov 2004, Michael Dyck wrote:
In today's gweekly Pt 1, Michael Hart wrote:
We're still keeping up with Moore's Law! Moore's Law 18 month percentage = 115% Moore's Law 12 month percentage = 67%
I don't understand how these percentages were calculated.
18 months ago (May 24, 2003), the "TOTAL COUNT" (incl PG Australia) was about 8044 (interpolating between 8021 on May 21 and 8075 on May 28), so doubling every 18 months would land us at 2 * 8044 = 16088 today. Today's actual count is 14,484, or 90% of the predicted amount.
12 months ago (Nov 24, 2003), the total count was about 10,517 (interpolating between 10,396 on Nov 19 and 10,565 on Nov 26). Doubling every 18 months means multiplying by 2^(12/18) = 1.5874 every 12 months, which would predict a count of 16695 today. Our actual count of 14,484 is 87% of that.
So where do 115% and 67% come from?
These come from one of Brett's programs. . .I've asked him to check on them a few times, as I agree with you that the figures don't look right. I forwarded him this to encourage some rechecking. ;-) Happy Thanksgiving! Michael