On Fri, 8 May 2009, Bowerbird@aol.com wrote:
michael said:
Using your own statistics I thus defeat you:
defeat? it's not a contest. it's a conversation. :+)
we're all blind men trying to describe an elephant.
Using your own statistics I thus defeat you: Half the US population is 150 million people. MAYBE 1/3 of one percent have a Kindle. . . .
well, if you look, i said that _among_book-buyers_, the kindle is popular, so i think i described it well...
but if you want to quibble over the word "popular", i'll rescind it, in favor of "significant", so it now says: among book-buyers, the kindle is now significant...
that's why I eliminated HALF the population. . . . you want me to eliminate 90%??? That still leaves 30.5 million people, and Kindle ain't gonna ever reach that many. . .which is still NOTHING compare to the number of cellphones at 4.3 billion, or computers at 1.3 billion. You have to reach the masses where they ARE!!! Which is NOT Kindles or Sonys. . .and never will be. I still say the Kindle 1 will never sell a million. I still say the Kindle 2 will never sell a million by Thanksgiving. I'd bet on the new one, but I don't know anything about it yet. However, the REAL point is what we can call POPULAR. When Kindles sell 10% per year of iPhones/clones, which may actually be this year, can we REALLY say they are popular? Just saying they are popular with a small core group is like say something is popular with sports car owners. After all, the Corvette is a "popular" car, but doesn't sell all that many more than 1,000 per month, and there are not usually even 10,000 available for purchase. Thus, using a small sample does not mean anything much on a national or international scale. However, I will also bet that Kindle sales this year will NOT equal 10% of iPhones and their clones. . . . It's just all PR smoke and mirrors paid for by Bezos, until they sall a Bezillion of them. . . . Who wants to bet on when Kindle 2 sells the millionth? Or the new Kindle? Or the old Kindle?
since this very small percentage of the u.s. population -- 1/3 of one percent, if we use your figure, michael -- now accounts for 1/3 of the books purchased at amazon -- at least for the titles which are available for kindle -- i think it's hard to deny that their impact is "significant"...
It may be significant to Amazon, but until it passes 10% of all books sold, period, it is still INsignificant for the whole ball of wax. Anyone want to make a wager when 10% of all books sold are eBooks?
heck, i thought the 10% figure in february was shocking, but it didn't seem to draw very much comment, i thought.
this 35% figure, though, has been written up quite a bit... and everyone seems to think it's just as surprising as i do.
I don't think it's shocking because I don't believe Amazon is telling the truth, the whole truth, and nothing but the truth. However, IF Amazon is selling 1/3 of all books sold in America, and IF Amazon's Kindle is selling 35% of Amazon's book sales, THEN eBooks, just KINDLE eBooks, are already selling 10%!!!!!!! Of all books sold in the U.S. And if you believe THAT. . .heehee!
-bowerbird
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