On Tue, 26 Jan 2010, Bowerbird@aol.com wrote:

You seem to be missing that the numbers of cellphones sold per
year are really on the order of BILLION not of a million.

4.5 BILLION cellphone out there.

How many iPhones?

1% would be 45 million. . .but that's not what anyone claims.

There just aren't that many iPhones out there. . . .

Percentagewise.

   Don't you ever listen???

   I've said for ages, "Don't buy a cellphone without wifi!"

let me ask a question.  for your current phone, the one you

are talking about with the $35/month unlimited data plan,

and wifi, can you access the front page of the n.y. times site?

do you see all of the pictures?  can you click on all the links?

and if you can, how long does it take that front page to load?

The Geek Luncher with that phone is out of state right now,
but I will forward your question, though I would understand
if he didn't want to sub to the NYT.  However, believe not,
_I_ have actually subbed, and will offer him my password.

can you get wikipedia?  or are you shunted to an "alternative"

version which has been dumbed-down for cell-phone access?

I read most of my NYT via links in my email, so I don't know if
I am getting full access, though it seems to be.

Will try to compare to the phones.

As for wikipedia, I don't like their regular pages, so I might
actually like phone pages better.

I'll try testing some of these at m.domain.dom

   An interesting POV.

   I'm not sure it's got any factual backing, but interesting.

   What about AT&T?  Or are you counting them?

it's not a "p.o.v.".  it's how the history went down, michael.

steve wanted verizon, because they were acknowledged as

"best".  but verizon turned him down flat, flat as a pancake.

then he tried sprint, but they wouldn't give him a deal either.

so at&t was his only other option.  they were so desperate,

for any business, that they basically couldn't turn him down.

of course, all of us users have been totally dissatisfied with

at&t, because they haven't been able to get their act together,

despite the huge influx of business (and respect) from iphone.

Actually, we have AT&T phones here, as well as others, and they
seem to compete just fine.

As far as Jobs. . .that might all have gone to the dinosaurs,
according to the BBC and NPR. . .just wait a bit for release.

Not to mention those Belgian iPhones, presuming they exist.

;-)

steve hung with them for quite a while, longer than he should,

but the word on the street is that their exclusivity is now gone.

That's what I hear, too, but. . .the question is, did Jobs win/lose?

I would say he won. . .you sound as if you think he lost. . . .

   Actually, all The Billionaire Boys Club are betting against you.

   As you may recall, I starting predicting years and years ago,

   when cellphones first reached 50% saturation levels, that the

   new wave of cellphones would be more wild new features. . . .

i'm still waiting.  but i'm afraid that day is still off in the future.

No, the future is now.

for years and years, they played the "minutes" game with us, and

even now, they think it's a big deal to knock $30 off their $99 plan

for unlimited _voice_ for a month.  but that's still a whopping $69.

As compared to???

I'll have to admit that when I was in Europe the phone rates weren't
so much less that I noticed, though the Net was pretty cheap.

   So who else is going to be allowed to provide for iPhones???

the rumor-mill says verizon will get the iphone in addition to at&t.

i'm guessing half (or more) of the people who have suffered through

the at&t exclusivity period will switch to verizon as soon as they can.

I think we agree on that, but we have to wait for reality to happen.

"it's" still surging???

You mean iPhones???

When iPhones make up 10% of all cellphones, then you have a real point.

Up until then it's pretty much on the order of Macs.

Yes, Macs are really out there, but very much a minority.

Let me know how many smart phones you think there are in the world.

but the really startling statistic is that 80% of smart-phone bandwidth

is being generated by iphone users, meaning they use their phones to

navigate the web _twice_ as much as owners of other smart-phones...

Or, just possibly, that iPhones are that much less efficient in getting
their users what they want. . .or. . .iPhone users just spend twice as
much on that sort of activity as other people, like Mac people do other
things than the average computer user???

I'm serious here, please think about these questions.

I'd be curious to do a real study on what would happen if you took big
samples of iPhone and Blackberry users and swapped their phones a month
and recorded what usage and changes took place.

Isn't it just possible the iPhones are Yuppie phones?

Hee hee!

   It's cute. . .no one says not.

oh please.  spare yourself the indignity of backhanded "compliments".

the iphone is a lot more than "cute".  it has revolutionized the future.

OK, I'm listening. . . .

I have several people who are willing to buy me one. . .convince me!!!

   It's just not even 5% of the market, maybe half that. . . .

only if you define "market" in a completely nonsensical way.

the iphone isn't competing against giveaway dumb-phones.

OK, how many smartphones???  Why haven't you said THAT???

Are you really saying there are only 100 million smart phones
in the entire world out of 4.5 billion???

Even when 2 1/4 billion of them are less than two years old?

   Seems to be following the Mac statistics.

maybe you need to brush up on those statistics as well.

mac has 90% of the market for machines costing $1000+.

Duh?  And you talk about doing oddball statistics???

The average computer sold has been under $500 for years!

Only Mac people CAN pay "$1000+". . .eh?

   Now iPods, that a different thing. . .heaven knows why,

   since there are SO many MP3 players working so well.

"heaven knows why"?  you really think it's a big mystery?

it's no mystery at all.  but i explained all of that in my

_original_reply_ to walter, which i will send tomorrow.

in a nutshell here now, though, what is interesting is

how apple cannibalized its own ipod line with the touch,

which is essentially the iphone without the phone part

(so it boils down to the same form-factor as your phone,

michael, with wifi access but with no phone capability.)

Yes, I love that idea, except that they cost too much!!!

that ipod touch -- with its dependence on wifi -- broke

free from the tyranny of the 2-year carrier-contract, and

basically puts the web in your pocket without access costs.

Still too expensive. . .I'll get a clone.

Or used.

   You just haven't see all the Euro-phones on the streets. . . .

it's not hard for me to imagine a world where _everyone_

is carrying around the web in their pocket all of the time...

Me neither. . .people in Europe were doing email by phone in 1996.