michael said:
Using your own statistics I thus defeat you:
defeat? it's not a contest. it's a conversation. :+) we're all blind men trying to describe an elephant.
Using your own statistics I thus defeat you: Half the US population is 150 million people. MAYBE 1/3 of one percent have a Kindle. . . .
well, if you look, i said that _among_book-buyers_, the kindle is popular, so i think i described it well... but if you want to quibble over the word "popular", i'll rescind it, in favor of "significant", so it now says: among book-buyers, the kindle is now significant... since this very small percentage of the u.s. population -- 1/3 of one percent, if we use your figure, michael -- now accounts for 1/3 of the books purchased at amazon -- at least for the titles which are available for kindle -- i think it's hard to deny that their impact is "significant"... heck, i thought the 10% figure in february was shocking, but it didn't seem to draw very much comment, i thought. this 35% figure, though, has been written up quite a bit... and everyone seems to think it's just as surprising as i do. -bowerbird ************** Remember Mom this Mother's Day! Find a florist near you now. (http://yellowpages.aol.com/search?query=florist&ncid=emlcntusyelp0000000...)
On Fri, 8 May 2009, Bowerbird@aol.com wrote:
michael said:
Using your own statistics I thus defeat you:
defeat? it's not a contest. it's a conversation. :+)
we're all blind men trying to describe an elephant.
Using your own statistics I thus defeat you: Half the US population is 150 million people. MAYBE 1/3 of one percent have a Kindle. . . .
well, if you look, i said that _among_book-buyers_, the kindle is popular, so i think i described it well...
but if you want to quibble over the word "popular", i'll rescind it, in favor of "significant", so it now says: among book-buyers, the kindle is now significant...
that's why I eliminated HALF the population. . . . you want me to eliminate 90%??? That still leaves 30.5 million people, and Kindle ain't gonna ever reach that many. . .which is still NOTHING compare to the number of cellphones at 4.3 billion, or computers at 1.3 billion. You have to reach the masses where they ARE!!! Which is NOT Kindles or Sonys. . .and never will be. I still say the Kindle 1 will never sell a million. I still say the Kindle 2 will never sell a million by Thanksgiving. I'd bet on the new one, but I don't know anything about it yet. However, the REAL point is what we can call POPULAR. When Kindles sell 10% per year of iPhones/clones, which may actually be this year, can we REALLY say they are popular? Just saying they are popular with a small core group is like say something is popular with sports car owners. After all, the Corvette is a "popular" car, but doesn't sell all that many more than 1,000 per month, and there are not usually even 10,000 available for purchase. Thus, using a small sample does not mean anything much on a national or international scale. However, I will also bet that Kindle sales this year will NOT equal 10% of iPhones and their clones. . . . It's just all PR smoke and mirrors paid for by Bezos, until they sall a Bezillion of them. . . . Who wants to bet on when Kindle 2 sells the millionth? Or the new Kindle? Or the old Kindle?
since this very small percentage of the u.s. population -- 1/3 of one percent, if we use your figure, michael -- now accounts for 1/3 of the books purchased at amazon -- at least for the titles which are available for kindle -- i think it's hard to deny that their impact is "significant"...
It may be significant to Amazon, but until it passes 10% of all books sold, period, it is still INsignificant for the whole ball of wax. Anyone want to make a wager when 10% of all books sold are eBooks?
heck, i thought the 10% figure in february was shocking, but it didn't seem to draw very much comment, i thought.
this 35% figure, though, has been written up quite a bit... and everyone seems to think it's just as surprising as i do.
I don't think it's shocking because I don't believe Amazon is telling the truth, the whole truth, and nothing but the truth. However, IF Amazon is selling 1/3 of all books sold in America, and IF Amazon's Kindle is selling 35% of Amazon's book sales, THEN eBooks, just KINDLE eBooks, are already selling 10%!!!!!!! Of all books sold in the U.S. And if you believe THAT. . .heehee!
-bowerbird
************** Remember Mom this Mother's Day! Find a florist near you now. (http://yellowpages.aol.com/search?query=florist&ncid=emlcntusyelp0000000...)
Michael S. Hart wrote:
However, I will also bet that Kindle sales this year will NOT equal 10% of iPhones and their clones. . . .
If a body buys an ebook reader you can be pretty confident that she will use it to read books. And you don't spend $300 if you just read a little: You read a lot. If somebody buys an iPhone (which is basically an inflated iPod) you can be pretty confident that he will listen to music on it. The most popular iPhone application is "The Moron Test". Seeing is believing: http://www.apple.com/iphone/appstore/#paid How it works? If you buy this test, you are a moron. If you show it to your wife, you are a complete asshole...
On Fri, 8 May 2009, Marcello Perathoner wrote:
Michael S. Hart wrote:
However, I will also bet that Kindle sales this year will NOT equal 10% of iPhones and their clones. . . .
If a body buys an ebook reader you can be pretty confident that she will use it to read books. And you don't spend $300 if you just read a little: You read a lot.
"a lot" is still a relative term. No one seems to expect the average Kindle owner to buy more than a book a month, and even the most wild speculations are based on 3 a month by people who don't say that will actually happen. If people are going to talk in relative terminology, it doesn't really mean anything in terms of numbers, hard numbers, and if Kindle doesn't sell in numbers, hard numbers, it will continue to be more PR than an actual reality.
If somebody buys an iPhone (which is basically an inflated iPod) you can be pretty confident that he will listen to music on it.
I would be even more confident about phone calls. However, if only 10% of iPhone users read eBooks on their iPhones, that's more than Kindle users. Apple will sell 10 million iPhones this year and may have sold about that many last year. Again, I repeat, because no one seems to hear it, WE MUST REACH PEOPLE WHERE THEY ARE LIVING!!!!!!! People are living with cellphones. . .67% of ALL PEOPLE ON THE ENTIRE PLANET HAVE A CELLPHONE. 20% of the world population maybe has computers. 0%, in round numbers, have a Kindle or Sony. They have to sell 100 million to hit even 1%. They aren't even TRYING for that kind of market! The REALITY of these products lies in numbers of how many are sold and used. The 4.3 billion number of cellphones doesn't even include those that are not in service, but should still make fine eBook readers. . . . Stop being SUBjective. Start being OBjective.
Michael S. Hart wrote:
Again, I repeat, because no one seems to hear it, WE MUST REACH PEOPLE WHERE THEY ARE LIVING!!!!!!!
And that's why we still give them plain vanilla ascii files in the year 2009... There's a "free as in beer" app called "Kindle for iPhone" so everybody is happy. Now somebody just go find out how many of them were sold. (The apple web site keeps telling me to install iTunes if I want to see anything. On my Linux laptop, over my dead body!)
On Fri, 8 May 2009, Marcello Perathoner wrote:
Michael S. Hart wrote:
Again, I repeat, because no one seems to hear it, WE MUST REACH PEOPLE WHERE THEY ARE LIVING!!!!!!!
And that's why we still give them plain vanilla ascii files in the year 2009...
There's a "free as in beer" app called "Kindle for iPhone" so everybody is happy. Now somebody just go find out how many of them were sold. (The apple web site keeps telling me to install iTunes if I want to see anything. On my Linux laptop, over my dead body!)
Then you will never understand how the rest of the world is, and you will keep speaking from ignorance. mh
participants (3)
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Bowerbird＠aol.com -
Marcello Perathoner -
Michael S. Hart