[PGCanada] Introductions, etc.: Comprends pas: Please explain.

Brett Paul Dunbar brett at dimetrodon.demon.co.uk
Thu Nov 11 17:47:27 PST 2004

Carlo Traverso <traverso at dm.unipi.it> writes
>>>>>> "Wallace" == Wallace J McLean <ag737 at freenet.carleton.ca> writes:
>    Wallace> Qu'est-ce que vous ne comprenez pas?  Serbian copyright
>    Wallace> law is, right now, life+50, but are they under political
>    Wallace> pressure (internal or external) to "harmonize"? If they
>    Wallace> eventually join the EU, presumably they will be forced to
>    Wallace> "harmonize" to life+70, so how close are they to EU
>    Wallace> membership, realistically?
>I think that Serbia joining EU will be in the far future. There are no
>discussions currently, next joining states will be Bulgaria and
>Romania in few years, Turkey is under discussion for within 14 years,
>former Yougoslavia states (except Slovenia, that is in EU now) and
>Albania will be even later, Serbia and Albania will be the
>last. Disscussions will not start before a Kosovo settlement and
>stabilization. 25 years may be a fair guess.

Accession for the western Balkan states is likely to be sooner than 
that. Croatia, already officially a candidate, possibly as soon as 2007 
the rest, all still applicants, seem likely to get candidate status 
early next year and to join in the 2010-2015 period. Unlike with Turkey 
there is little opposition to the membership of the western Balkan 
states, so negotiations are likely to prove relatively straightforward, 
joining before Turkey is certainly possible.
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Brett Paul Dunbar
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